Gold Prices This Week And Next Week's Forecast

Sunday, September 24, 2017

solid gold

Last week we forecast that the gold price would correct to $1,300 or so and form a bottom sometime after Wednesday. The primary reasons for this forecast concerned the fact that momentum had turned downwards after gold became sharply overbought and that the Fed FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday was likely to cause a bounce in the $USD which would accelerate the downward move for gold.

Sure enough, gold dropped precisely as we predicted, hitting a low of $1294 on Thursday before starting to put in a base. The precious metal finished the week just below $1,300 at $1,297.

In chart form, last week brought gold RIGHT to support. We’ve been predicting gold would retrench to this line for two weeks now. It’s finally there.

All of this is EXTREMELY good news.

This drop shook out a lot of the momentum players/ hot money. It also wore off most of gold’s overbought status with its RSI. And even better, it brought gold into “buy” territory on the Slow Stochastics. Indeed, the current readings for both of these indicators are within spitting distance of levels associated with lows for gold in 2017.

The other good news is that real rates as depicted by the TIPS to Treasuries ratio has already bottomed. This ratio is what leads gold for the most part - and as you can see the blue line started turning up on Friday last week.

Again, all of this is VERY good news for gold. The precious metal might have another day or so of weakness early this week as a final “flush” off momentum traders. However, once gold breaks above $1,300 with conviction (likely by Wednesday morning), the next leg up will have officially begun.

This next leg will see the precious metal begin its ascent to $1,370+. We believe gold will be there by mid-October.

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

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Graham Summers is Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, an independent investment research firm based in the Washington DC-metro area with clients in 56 countries around the world.

Graham’s clients include over 20,000 retail investors as well as strategists at some of the largest financial institutions in the world (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS, and Raymond James to name a few). His views on business and investing has been featured in RollingStone magazine, The New York Post, CNN Money, Crain’s New York Business, the National Review, Thomson Reuters, the Glenn Beck Show and more.