Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions
Period | 2 Days | 3 Days | 1 Week | 2 Weeks | 1 Month |
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Change | +0.21% | +1.25% | -2.50% | -2.20% | +7.05% |
Gold Price Forecasts - Analyst Predictions
Gold Forecast Short Term
Gold Forecast 1 Year
Gold Forecast 3 Years
Featured Gold Price Forecasts
Metals and miners are taking a breather after explosive gains. More upside is expected before the next cycle low, which is due in June.
Last Friday’s price action was wild, with gold swinging $100 and silver $2.00 in a 4-hour window. As the bull market matures, I expect the swings to get even bigger.
The Bitcoin halving has arrived, prices must hold critical support near $60,000 to prevent a larger ‘profit-taking’ breakdown.
Interest Payments
Interest payments (represented by the red line) on U.S. debt have surpassed the Defense Budget (black line) and are now on par with Medicare (green line). If this trend continues, debt payments could potentially exceed those of Social Security later this decade.
Debt Maturity
Interest payments could increase further as $8.7 trillion (25% of all debt) must be refinanced over the next 12 months at much higher interest rates. The unsustainable debt picture is one of the primary drivers pushing gold higher.
The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 287.
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From my last article posted in late-March, Gold was in the midst of a larger uptrend, which was expected to hold up into the early-to-mid April timeframe. With that, we are now in the range for a correction for the yellow metal, though one favored to end up as a countertrend affair - against a much bigger upward phase.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
The last key bottom for Gold came from our 72-day time cycle, which is currently the most dominant cycle for this market - and which bottomed out back in mid-February. From that low, we projected (in advance) a 10-14% rally to play out into April, which has easily been met.
Here again is that 72-day cycle:
In terms of time, the average rally phases with this 72-day wave were noted as having taken 39 trading days before topping, which favored higher highs into April 9th or later. With that, the highest high seen was Friday's (April 12th) peak of 2448.80, which puts us into the expected topping range with this cycle.
...Gold is rallying regardless of what’s happening in other markets, and while there are signs of a top, gold appears to simply not care about them at the moment.
In particular, gold price keeps on forming daily reversal candlesticks, which “should” be tops, but they likely aren’t. The emotional momentum is so strong that it takes gold even higher despite the overbought status and despite the clear technical top signs.
Did the technical analysis stop working? No, it’s simply the case that given the medium-term analogies, short-term indications yield. Let’s take a look at gold’s long-term chart for more details:
There are several techniques that point to gold’s upside potential at about $2,340 - $2,380.
The one that I started the above gold’s-upside-target analysis with is the analogy to the previous times when the RSI moved above 70, then gold consolidated, and then it moved up once again despite that recent overbought status. After all, this is what we see now, so the question was what happened in previous analogous cases.
I marked the previous cases (based on the RSI readings) with orange...
More Gold Price Forecasts
We are entering the recognition phase of the gold bull market where pullbacks become brief and infrequent. Many investors will be left behind. Silver is gaining traction, and prices could explode to the upside if they manage to push through $30.00 next week. Gold...
Gold is in the beginning stages of a new bull market that should last into the 2030s. The last breakout of this magnitude was in 2005, which triggered a 6-year bull run. By 2030, we see gold hitting our longer-term price target between $8000 to $10,000.
From my prior article from mid-March, Gold had broken out to the upside - but was in the midst of a smaller-degree dip, a move expected to end up as countertrend. This was the case, with the metal having broken on back to higher highs for the swing, as favored....
The gold price has just broken out to new all-time record highs. Not a single person who has ever purchased gold in the history of human civilization has ever lost money on their purchase (if they held through today).
After almost 4 years of going nowhere gold has this month broken out into what looks set to be by far its biggest bullmarket to date, and it would be surprising if it wasn’t given the fundamental outlook which is for currency and societal collapse, implosion of the...
In the midst of the recent gold and silver rally, Goldman Sachs has just updated their year-end gold target to $2,300. And suggested that the move will re-activate 'dormant ETF buying.'
As mentioned in my last article back in February, Gold was in a correction phase - but was into bottoming territory, as represented by a key cycle that we noted at that time. That cycle ended up troughing with the February 14th tag of 1996.40, and with that should...
The next big surge in gold has started, and sub-$2000 pricing may be a thing of the past. A $1 billion capital injection saved New York Community Bancorp mid-week; was that enough to arrest its decline?
Precious metals and miners toppled after huge gains in employment: January non-farm payrolls jumped 353,000 versus the expected 180,000. The Fed confirmed it was done hiking on Wednesday, but Powell pushed back on the potential for rate cuts.
Gold Price Forecast FAQ
How do you forecast the price of gold?
Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst.
Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.
For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details.
What are the key factors for long term gold forecasts?
When forecasting what may happen to the price of gold longer term, there are many things to consider including economic trends, the impact of current and expected monetary policy, QE, debt monetization, and the aggregate impact on future currency valuation.
Does the price of gold go up when the stock market goes down?
The price of gold is often negatively correlated to the stock markets. When the markets go down, gold prices usually go up. However, this is not always true. Sometimes the price of gold and stocks both go up and down in unison. Fundamental factors play an important role and need to be carefully analyzed. Historically, however, the price of gold is not tied to the fluctuations of stock and bonds. This is one of the chief reasons when one should have gold in their portfolio – to protect the long-term value of your investments.
Does the value of the US dollar predict the price of gold?
As gold is traditionally quoted in US dollars, the price of gold is negatively correlated to the strength of the USD. The weaker the US dollar, the cheaper it is to purchase gold. Therefore, if economic factors predict a strengthening of the US dollar then this will tend to drop the price of gold, and vice-versa. According to the statistics (since 1973), the long-term correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the gold prices is -0.6 so this link is quite strong.
How do US interest rates impact future gold prices?
The level of US interest rates is an important driver of future gold prices. When investing in gold, the investor is faced with the opportunity cost of gold - a non-interest bearing asset. The higher the US interest rate for holding US dollars or investing in Treasuries, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold. It is more likely, therefore, that a rally in the price of gold will be forecasted the lower the US benchmark interest rate.