Market Conditions

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The astonishing Fed again proved the consistency of its inconsistency. Since its creation in 1913, and especially after WWII, the Fed has always been behind the curve. It is hard to believe that this is just incompetence. The recent change of policy hardly seems
Imagine a casino full of slot machines that all guarantee a constant high return. All you need to do is to put in a bit of money and you will get an incredible income stream for life. Well, this is exactly what the stock market is, namely a remarkable slot machine wi
The statement above is of course totally accurate for a country running budget and trade deficits for over half a century with a total debt, including unfunded liabilities, in the hundreds of trillions of dollars. It could have been said today, but it actually dates
I’d like to look at the bigger picture and consider certain trends we may see over the next decade. I think the deflationary pressures are waning and assets are slowly transitioning into an inflationary period. Major shifts like this require time. It often takes
“What a difference a day makes”! Well we didn’t get the sun and the flowers like in Dinah Washington’s song but more like storm and showers. For the ones who don’t remember Dinah, Amy Winehouse made a more recent version of the song. Last week I warned investors again,
There is a fallacy now spreading throughout the precious metals world, and gold investors who believe it to be true will be making a costly mistake when attempting to navigate the volatility in this market over the next several years. What is the fallacy we are r
Hindsight is the most exact of all sciences. Most people who live their life backwards have a miserable life. Having been around for a while, I tend not to look back, especially not at negative events. Much better to embrace uncertainty since everything going forward fr
This is the story about Debtor, a new-born American baby. Debtor has just been born into the greatest economy in the world, a land full of promises and opportunities. This is what his parents tell him. But unbeknown to Debtor, he has been given a very bad start in life.
A bit longer than a week to go! However, the quiet times can be very deceiving. As the analogy of a deep river that was used recently suggested, while the surface may appear placid with only small ripples to show movement, there could be strong currents down below. Supe
Here’s a BEV chart for the Dow Jones going back to January 1982. The BEV plot fell to its -25% line (Dow Jones 777) in August 1982. This was a historic bottom; after it nothing would ever be the same again for the stock market. Since 1966 the Dow Jones on five occasions