Gold Forecast: Are Gold Prices Headed For Another December Bottom?

Friday, November 9, 2018

fine gold bars

The seasonal pattern in gold prices supports an October high, a November decline, and a December Bottom. It looks like we got the October high at $1246. Next, we should see a November decline.

Gold Weekly

Gold tends to top in October or early November and bottom in December (November in 2014). The average decline has been around 11%. It looks $1246 is the October top for 2018. I think the question now is how low will gold prices drop in December.

gold continuous contract chart

Gold Daily

I believe $1246 is the October high, the first benchmark of the seasonal pattern. The next step is making a lower low and breaking cycle support. For this to occur, gold prices need to crack the $1213.40 low and then the cycle trendline near $1200. If met, then I think we can expect a quality buying opportunity in December.

Silver

Silver prices are trending back to the lower end of the range. Closing below $14.25 in the coming days would establish a breakdown. If confirmed, I'm interested to see how prices react at the $13.97 low. They could either begin to bounce or weaken expeditiously.

Dollar

The dollar bounced off the support line on Wednesday. The dollar has adhered to a 10-day (+/- 1 day) advance/decline cycle followed by a 3-5 day correction. If that progression endures, then this pullback to 95.48 may be over, and we could see another 10-day advance to new highs.

GDX

I feel miners could be on the verge of collapse. What happens over the next few trading days is key. Declining below the cycle trendline could trigger a sharp move lower - akin to the bull trap update released November 1st, 2018.

The seasonal guide supports lower precious metals prices into the December 19th Fed meeting. I'll expect a November breakdown and December bottom if gold remains below the October $1246 high.

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AG Thornson

AG is the editor of www.GoldPredict.com report and creator of the Gold Predict Color Code. His members receive frequent updates and commentary regarding the gold, silver, and mining sectors. At his heart, he is a technician and prides himself on making his analysis easy to understand through the use of adaptive and creative charting techniques. You can reach AG at info@GoldPredict.com.