Gold Price Forecast: Getting A Read Of The Next Quarter

Monday, April 3, 2017

gold bars

On the first trading day of the month we naturally look back to the month that was in the field of precious metals—specifically, gold. But it’s also the end of a quarter, which means we’re moving to a new segment in 2017. That means trying to get a read on a potential forecast for gold this coming quarter.

Where Is Gold’s Momentum Right Now?

If you paid attention to the recent gains in silver, then you noticed how precious metals made a significant move in the middle of March, setting themselves up to end the month on a high note. The same is true of gold, as this chart (courtesy of Apmex.com) reveals:

Although this looks like a mountainous gain in the middle of the month, keep in mind that the price range on the left isn’t very large. Even so, it’s an encouraging sign for gold’s price for investors who want to see it move up in 2017.

It’s hard to look at this chart and imagine that gold does not have some momentum moving into April. But let’s look further into the forecast in order to get a better gauge.

A Near-Term Limit For Gold?

EconomicCalendar.com goes through the gold forecast and explains what investors need to know, particularly when it comes to the performance of the US dollar index. It points out that the USD is now hitting some “Key resistance” this week, which may put some room in the cards for gold’s price .

But gold is also struggling to come back to its recent highs in February, which means that there may be some resistance in those prices as well—the performance of gold in March certainly seemed to bear this out, as gold flirted with $1,260 per ounce briefly before tapering off this week.

The action in gold appears to show cautious optimism at best for the near-term future, with the possibility of more falling as April opens up next week.

This Year In Precious Metals

Finally, let’s extend the forecast and look at what remains this year. Although the year is already a quarter over, there is a lot of action yet to be seen. Gold shrugged off an interest rate hike in the first quarter, which may be an indication that the economy can handle more interest rate hikes throughout the year. Even so, interest rates are historically low, which means that they may not be as bearish for the yellow metal as some analysists predict.

Daily FX sees some short-term resistance in gold. Although the future gets murkier the longer you try to look, it’s hard to imagine that there will be any one event that could send gold spiraling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has tapered expectations a bit after roaring up to new highs early in the year. Whether or not gold moves up, as usual, is anyone’s guess, but there is plenty of reason for cautious optimism at the moment. Gold investors have to hope that April Fools does not translate to fool’s gold this year.

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Darren Capriotti

Darren Capriotti has been a market analyst for the past decade and is an expert in precious metals. He prides himself on his ability to analyze the market and offer true value to investors with questions about gold, silver, and other precious metals. Highly educated, incredibly passionate, and more accurate than most, Darren offers a true, unbiased look into what investors can expect in the precious metals market. You can reach Darren at dcapriotti@gold-eagle.com.