Gold Price Forecast: Important Dates to Watch in the Months Ahead

Friday, August 4, 2017

gold bars

Forecasting the price of gold can be a bit like forecasting the weather. Though we might know some broad strokes about what might happen on a long-term basis (say, the changing of the seasons)—it’s hard to predict where the price of gold will fall on any particular day.

But we have one advantage in gold forecasting that we don’t in forecasting the weather: an economic calendar. Let’s look at the important dates for gold in the economic road ahead:

FMOC Meeting Dates

Like so much about the economy, the seasons hinge upon the decisions of the Federal Reserve. The semi-regular FMOC get-togethers are the most notable here, including the upcoming dates:

  • September 19-20

  • Oct/November 31-1

  • December 12-13

As you might recall, the July meeting was relatively uneventful, with the Fed generally keeping its current policies in place. But as you watch the Dow Jones over 22,000 points, the state of the economy helps feed into just how these Fed meetings can be so important—especially for the prospects of gold, if monetary policy continues to tighten.

Finding the Gold Cycle

GLD Gold shares chart

A chart of GLD—which, by the way, is not always a rock-solid replacement for the price of gold itself—yields an interesting, cyclical pattern in precious metals. Up one month, down the next. Though the overall trend of late seems to be strong in gold’s favor, noting these cyclical moves can be an important way for investors to forecast particular gold dips. There are no guarantees, but if the current pattern holds up, you might expect to see gold in the mid-$1,200’s or even lower by the end of August, particularly if optimism remains in the markets and the Fed looks primed to unleash a new interest rate hike come September.

If that’s the case, the next two months could make a very intriguing possibility for buying gold on the dip. If you’re thinking about buying the dip yourself, you might want to hold off and see what the market is made of first.

Upcoming Events in August

Since we just kicked off August this week, let’s zoom in and look at the yellow metal’s prospects for the next few weeks. Though the cyclical nature of gold’s price as of late suggests a relatively “cool” period for gold, there are some dates that bear watching:

  • Jobless claims. Another release went out just yesterday, showing that the economy continues to look strong in the way of employment. This is a weekly release, of course, but always bears watching as a lagging economic indicator.

  • The housing market. The housing market index reveals demand for homes, revealing some insight into that “other” tool of diversification: real estate.

How will these events affect gold? Try not to see any 1:1 connections here—but it’s worth watching headlines throughout the month as we look for indications where the Fed will move. If August’s numbers continue to look good, we might see a dip in gold in the next two months that will represent a quality buying opportunity.

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Darren Capriotti

Darren Capriotti has been a market analyst for the past decade and is an expert in precious metals. He prides himself on his ability to analyze the market and offer true value to investors with questions about gold, silver, and other precious metals. Highly educated, incredibly passionate, and more accurate than most, Darren offers a true, unbiased look into what investors can expect in the precious metals market. You can reach Darren at dcapriotti@gold-eagle.com.