We Are Approaching Another Bottoming In Metals/Miners

Wednesday, May 3, 2017

metals

First published on Saturday April 29 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net I think we are approaching a bottoming in the miners and metals, but we still have a few “squiggles” likely to be seen to the downside before we are done.  But, as I noted in a Market Alert this past week, we have approached the next region for long term investors to accumulate again, as noted by the blue box on my GDX daily chart.

So, based upon us approaching another bottoming region, I think this update can be rather simple.

As of the end of the week, I think the GDX 8-minute chart may present us with the clearest picture of the complex right now.   As you can see, the ideal structure still seems to need a decline to complete the 3rdwave in the c-wave of the larger degree wave (2).  So, as long as we remain below the micro-resistance box I have had on this chart all week, pressure will remain down, until we complete this 5-wave (c) wave.

Based upon the current micro structure, it seems we still need to complete waves 3-4-5 of this (c) wave of wave (2), which has been outlined on the 8-minute chart.  The ideal target for this bottoming is the 20.31 level, where the c-wave will be equal to the a-wave.  However, any further break down that takes us below the December 2016 low of 18.58 would place this bull market count in serious jeopardy, and have me reconsider whether the long-term bull market has resumed. But, as long as we remain over that level, this becomes a low risk entry for those looking to add to their long positions.

As far as GLD is concerned, as long as this pullback maintains support over the 117 region (the .618 retracement region of wave (1) of 3 of iii) then we have a very bullish set up which can take us to the 138 region in the GLD rather quickly, once the next upside move is triggered. 

And, lastly, for silver, I am still torn as to whether this is going to find support as a (ii) in the very near term, or if we will continue to subdivide lower for a larger degree a-b-c structure, both of which are presented on the daily chart.  But, as with gold and the miners, the pattern is suggestive of a strong rally set up to take hold in the not too distant future.

So, while the market has been taking its time in setting up a strong 3rd wave move, it really does not look like it will be much longer before the set up finally gets triggered, again, as long as cited support is held over the coming week or two.   

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD & YI. 

Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net); a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including S&P500, metals, oil, USD & VXX); interactive member-analyst forum; and detailed library of Elliott Wave education. Visit his website:https://www.elliottwavetrader.net. You can contact Avi at info@elliottwavetrader.net.