Will The Gold Price Always Face Resistance At $1,350?

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

gold bricks and gold coins

Those who have been paying attention to the price of gold in recent years have seen it move up to around $1,350—and back down again. Now, with gold making a comeback in 2017 (only to hit a wall of resistance today, with the price down over $10 as of this writing), it’s clear that a straight forward bull market is not going to happen—at least not right now.

Is there really something to the idea of a psychological barrier for gold at $1,350, and if so, is there any evidence for it? Let’s look at some recent news.

Gold’s Recent Performance In Price

The $1,350 mark is certainly not a ceiling for gold as it went well above that in the period after 2011—but in recent years. To be sure gold’s price  has been relatively stable above the $1,000 mark, never venturing too high into the middle between $1,000 and $2,000. Why is that?

CNBC points out a “nasty level” in gold prices that is very interesting. This Monday, gold hit its highest level since November 2016, flirting briefly with $1,300. Gold has since come back down in what has been a new routine for the metal since its post-crisis increases. Although you could interpret some analysts’ predictions on gold to be pessimistic, people like Stacey Gilbert of Susquehanna, as quoted by CNBC, point out that gold currently makes a smart hedge in one’s portfolio.

Over time, gold has relatively stabilized since the 2011-2012 peaks that had some gold bugs seeing unlimited potential for the metal. But there are more ingredients in this recipe than simply looking at gold’s recent performance.

Uncertainty In The World Means Uncertainty In Gold

Gold has made some nice movements as of late, partially spurred by increasing perceptions of instability in the world. Headlines in Syria and North Korea seem to have some investors on edge, which has cut short the Dow Jones’ recent record-breaking performances and put some juice back into the price of gold.

Uncertainty is a blade that cuts both ways, however. Even relatively stable commodities like gold will see price fluctuations in these scenarios, which means that you’ll have new highs one day and big “corrective” type movements within a few days—as we’ve seen this week.

The US Dollar Is Moving Back Up

It’s never wise to ignore perhaps the most important factor in gold’s price, which is the strength of the US dollar. Because the USD has made gains recently, we’ve seen gold take a sudden dive. If the USD is really headed for a rally, as some predict, then there’s a strong possibility that gold will be stuck at its current position—i.e. the upper $1,200 mark—for the short-term. That means that gold may not make a strong run at $1,350 for the next few weeks.

Couple that with the instability in world headlines, however, gold nonetheless remains an interesting hedge. Even with the recent dip, there’s no doubt that investors see a strong reason to hold some position in gold. Whether or not gold skyrockets to $1,350 resistance level—remains to be seen.

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Darren Capriotti

Darren Capriotti has been a market analyst for the past decade and is an expert in precious metals. He prides himself on his ability to analyze the market and offer true value to investors with questions about gold, silver, and other precious metals. Highly educated, incredibly passionate, and more accurate than most, Darren offers a true, unbiased look into what investors can expect in the precious metals market. You can reach Darren at dcapriotti@gold-eagle.com.