Gold Forecast Still Looking For A Bounce

Gold continues to remain oversold on a short-term basis. Consequently, our algorithm is still looking for a bounce over the coming weeks to relieve this oversold condition. Although we are still forecasting a final low in mid-2017, any bounce we do get should only last for a few weeks before we continue to slide lower into 2017.

We are still suspicious of this recent drop for a number of reasons, not least because none of the other major markets we forecast have done anything but continue to behave as expected. All the other 15 markets we forecast have remained on track with minimal deviation - and well within expected levels of volatility. Only the gold market stands out from all these other major markets.

Should we not have a bounce over the next few weeks, our longer-term forecast would begin to head down in terms of a lower low. However, our mid-2017 timeframe would remain unaffected. 

We are forecasting a drop in the next few weeks in global stock markets - and this could be the catalyst to drive gold prices higher for a few weeks.

We are still expecting other markets to correct over the coming months, including global stock markets and peripheral currencies as the US Dollar once again becomes the go-to currency.  Our recent FOREX forecast has continued to be very accurate with both the Euro and the Pound falling against the US Dollar. We have been forecasting for months that stock markets would weaken as we head into the end of 2017 - and so far that remains on track.

Our short-term forecasts are a representation of our medium and long-term forecasts, which always show the full picture. Specifically, prices tend to be more random day to day than they are week to week or even month to month. Our short-term forecasts are always anchored against these larger patterns that barely change from week to week. This is what allows us to be so confident with our shorter-term forecasts in spite of the increased randomness in the short-term.

Taking patterns in nature that repeat over different time frames like fractals as the basis for the forecast methodology, our forecast patterns can last for months and years. Subsequently, we create a most probable long-term fractal pattern - and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.

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